TU: Alvin Brown says Jacksonville will grow, but he won't put a number on it

I am confused here, because part of what the mayor ran on was bringing jobs to Jax and now, he is saying he really doesn't have the tools, as a mayor, to do that?  I think we may need to remember he said this.  We also need to be wary if he tries to claim responsibility for any improvement since he doesn't feel the mayor can really impact unemployment.  I know certainly the governor is doing things to improve conditions, so maybe we can thank him in the end?  This is interesting, because it seems to run counter to some things that have already been said.

 

Mayor says too many economic variables can affect predictions.

Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown calls job creation his No. 1 priority but, unlike Gov. Rick Scott setting a goal of 700,000 new jobs in Florida in seven years, Brown isn’t setting any numeric measuring stick for the city.

A report issued in January by the U.S. Conference of Mayors predicts the Jacksonville metropolitan area will post 2 percent growth in total jobs this year, an improvement from the 1.2 percent growth in 2011. But Brown said he will not adopt any job-creation target of his own because there are too many economic variables in such predictions.

“I think the key for me is that in realistic terms, I want to see the local unemployment rate continue to fall, I want to see more businesses move to Jacksonville and businesses that are here expand, and as mayor, I’m going to do everything I can to partner with our business community,” he said.

Duval County’s unemployment rate was 11.2 percent when Brown took office in July and stood at 9.5 percent in December, according to state figures. However, the state data are not adjusted for seasonal changes that affect hiring. December’s rate was down sharply from the 11.4 percent jobless rate in December 2010.

Brown said he does not have a target for how much he wants the jobless rate to decline this year.

The mayor said his decision to balance the city’s budget last summer without raising taxes or fees helped create a positive environment for businesses because it gave them stability for their tax rates.

He is focusing on small-business growth today by hosting a Business Builder summit expected to attract about 460 people to the Prime Osborn Convention Center. He said it will give entrepreneurs a one-stop place to get information about how to obtain information on how to finance and market their businesses.

After calling for creation of a loan fund for small businesses when he ran for mayor, Brown said he wants to roll out a lending program this year. He also intends to establish financial incentives for small businesses that add jobs.

“This is just to lay the foundation,” he said of today’s summit.

Though Brown isn’t setting any numerical goals for job gains, others have made forecasts that could serve as a benchmark for the pace of Jacksonville’s recovery.

University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith forecasts the five-county Jacksonville metropolitan area will post 1.9 percent job growth in 2012.

At that rate, annual average employment in Duval County would rise by about 7,570 jobs. It wouldn’t be red-hot growth, but it would build on the city’s growth rate that added 4,700 jobs in 2011, according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity.

Snaith’s prediction is in line with IHS Global Insights, an Englewood, Colo. firm that does economic forecasts worldwide. IHS expects 2 percent job growth in 2012 in the Jacksonville metropolitan area. IHS did the job predictions for the U.S. Conference of Mayors report.

Snaith said there isn’t much a mayor can do to affect the powerful economic forces that shape employment levels.

“When you talk about it at the city level, a mayor has very limited tools to change the economic situation,” he said. “A mayor can’t fight against the business cycle.”

Mayors aren’t totally helpless, though. Snaith said as the economy improves, a mayor can put in place programs that will accelerate growth in certain sectors.

Brown said his emphasis on downtown and parks, the military and port, and working with the chamber to bolster high-wage industries such as advanced manufacturing, aviation, financial services, information technologies and life sciences will pay dividends.

“You have to sell your city and market your city,” he said. “Laying out a clear vision and providing leadership plays a role.”

Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2012-02-06/story/alvin-brown-say...

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