Mike Yost, the upstart Republican challenger to powerful U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, has released a second poll in as many weeks that seems to show him gaining on the long-time congresswoman.

The poll, conducted for the Yost campaign by Pulse Opinion Research shows Brown leading Yost 49 - 42, with 6 percent of voters undecided. Brown's 7-point lead is slightly less than the 8 percent lead Yost's previous poll gave her.

According to the Yost camp, the results are the latest sign their campaign is gaining momentum. They've added staffers in preparation for a competitive finish.

Brown's favorability ratings are upside down, according to the poll, with 29 percent of likely voters holding a "very favorable" opinion of her and 37 percent holding a "very unfavorable" opinion. In contrast, Yost's "very favorable"/"very unfavorable" numbers are 24/9.

The poll and campaign are making a number of assumptions here. For starters, Democrats hold a sizeable edge in the district and make up 63 percent of registered voters. During midterms, Democrats historically turn out at 42 percent, according to the Yost camp. Brown holds a 75 - 17 edge among Democrats. The Yost camp believes 60 percent of Republican voters will turn out in November. They hold an 84 - 5 edge among Republican voters. Factor all of that in and they believe they've got a competitive race here.

We'll keep watching.

The numbers: The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted on September 24, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. The survey was conducted using automated polling methodology.

http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/abel-harding/2010-09-26...